基于信息物理融合的有源配电网概率潮流计算研究
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作者单位:

1.贵州电网公司电力调度控制中心;2.上海交通大学

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基金项目:

贵州电网公司科技项目“基于云边融合的配网多元资源动态网格群优化与协同控制研究与应用”(项目号:066500KK52222046)

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Research on Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation of Active Distribution Network Based on Cyber-Physical Fusion
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Affiliation:

1.Power Dispatch and Control Center of Guizhou Power Grid Company Ltd;2.Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Funding:

Research and application of dynamic grid group optimization and collaborative control of multiple resources in distribution networks based on cloud-edge fusion

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    摘要:

    随着城市电气化和可再生能源技术的发展,分布式电源在配电系统中发挥着重要作用,但其随机波动性和不确定性对系统的智能化调控和稳定性提出了挑战。为解决这一问题,本文基于数智化能源互联网的信息物理系统融合理念,提出了一种新的概率潮流计算方法。该方法通过构建信息物理融合模型,利用传感与计算的协同机制全面感知系统动态运行,考虑了分布式电源发电的随机波动性,构建了风力和光伏发电的出力概率模型,并运用Copula理论建立了风光电场出力相关性的联合模型。此外,提出了基于高斯混合模型的负荷概率特性分析方法。在此基础上,采用概率密度演化方程,通过有限差分法实现高效求解,从而开发出一套面向数智化能源系统的概率潮流计算方法。该方法为分布式电源主导的配电系统提供了精准、高效的计算途径,助力数智化能源系统的安全、稳定和智能运行。

    Abstract:

    With the development of urban electrification and renewable energy technologies, distributed power sources play an important role in distribution systems, but their random volatility and uncertainty bring challenges to system stability. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a new probabilistic power flow calculation method based on the concept of cyber-physical system integration. This method comprehensively perceives the dynamic operation of the system through the information-physical fusion model, takes into account the random volatility of distributed power generation, constructs the output probability model of wind and photovoltaic power generation, and uses the Copula theory to establish a joint model of the output correlation of wind and photovoltaic power plants. In addition, a Gaussian mixture model is proposed to reveal the probabilistic characteristics of the load. On this basis, a new probabilistic power flow calculation method is proposed by adopting the probability density evolution equation and using the finite difference method for efficient solution. This method provides an accurate and efficient calculation approach for power distribution systems considering distributed generation, which helps to ensure the safe and stable operation of the system.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-10
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-27
  • 录用日期:2025-03-06
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